23 March 2016

2016 AFL Preview: Round 1

The time has come to talk footy for 2016. We've got a great opening round's worth of matches and we're excited for first bounce between Richmond and Carlton first thing tomorrow morning. We're going to do things a little differently this season. We're following the outline that our friends at the Buffalo News sports department use during NFL season. Have fun dissecting it.

Game of the Round
Melbourne Demons (0-0) vs. GWS Giants(0-0)

Time: Sat 1:40
Line: GWS (-8.5)
The Scoop: This has been quite a popular fixture in recent years, and it's failed to disappoint. Both clubs are on the up and Greater Western Sydney doesn't look like a side that was admitted just four short seasons ago. Melbourne have been at the bottom of the heap for a long time running, trying to break in to the middle third of the ladder.
Outlook: Dees by 5.


Top Attractions
Sydney Swans (0-0) vs. Collingwood Magpies (0-0)

Time: Sat 7:25
Line: Sydney (-9.5)
The Scoop: The Bloods are relatively good on opening round having only lost one in four and having drawn in 2011 to the Dees at the MCG. Collingwood meanwhile are coming off a great preseason performance having won all three matches against good competition. Sydney have also won their last three matches, home or road (against GWS), at ANZ Stadium in round 1. The Pies have also been above 75 percent when playing at ANZ, not to mention this fixture was moved in December from the MCG.
Outlook: Collingwood by 1.

Geelong Cats (0-0) vs. Hawthorn Hawks (0-0)

Time: Mon 3:20
Line: Hawthorn (-8.5)
The Scoop: The Kennett Curse has been almost completely phased out. It feels like just yesterday when Geelong's consecutive win streak including finals was about to reach the twenties. The Cats lost by two kicks to two of the best teams this preseason, while Hawthorn have been inconsistent. The Hawks beat a good team handily, lost to an equally good tem handily, and defeated a poor team by only twenty-one points.
Outlook: Geelong by 13.


Best of the Rest
Western Bulldogs (0-0) vs. Fremantle Dockers(0-0)

Time: Sun 1:10
Line: Fremantle (-4.5)
The Scoop: I'm very impressed with what the hosts have had to offer, they could put up insane numbers in the previous decade against terrible clubs, but couldn't beat the big boys in that era. The Dockers for the first time in their history were real finals contenders and the past two seasons have made a decent run to the finals and minor premierships. The bigger uncertainty si which of them will stay there longer as the Dogs have been labelled a fluke while ave gave up the "C" after nine season which surely means he's retiring at season's end.
Outlook: Dogs by 1.

West Coast Eagles (0-0) vs. Brisbane Lions (0-0)

Time: Sun 4:40
Line: West Coast (-49.5)
The Scoop: Eagles looking to set up another dose of Nic Nat paddy whack as star ruckman Nic Natinui continues to dominate the bounce. Think of face-offs in hockey and lacrosse. That holds significant importance throughout a game, same with a footy match. Lions had one good season where they beat Geelong in the final round two seasons ago but still didn't make finals. Brisbane is a team that can bee good even with some not so great players but they aren't by far the worst outfit in the AFL
Outlook: Eagles? At home? West Coast all day by 63.

Gold Coast Suns (0-0) vs. Essendon Bombers (0-0)

Time: Sat 3:35
Line: Gold Coast (-34.5)
The Scoop: The Suns of the Gold Coast sky had a less than impressive season after previously showing improvement. Now in their fifth season, the goal like GWS (who joined a year after the Suns) and Melbourne was to get out of the bottom third of the ladder. Essendon meanwhile, was going down as the ASADA scandal was gripping them like a vice, partially at the delight of North Melbourne supporters and Hawthorn to a lesser extent. The Dons rivalry with Carlton is at a low uncustomary to the AFL.
Outlook: Suns by 23.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (0-0) vs. Adelaide Crows (0-0)

Time: Sat 7:25
Line: North (-12.5)
The Scoop: Another lackluster preliminary final saw North Melbourne exit one game early from their first grand final since winning it all in 1999 . Sounds like the NFL's Buffalo Bills except playing beyond the regular season. Adelaide  won this fixture at home in round 1 last year, but they have had their own difficulty in qualifying for finals.
Outlook: Roos by 6.

Port Adelaide Power (0-0) vs. St. Kilda Saints (0-0)

Time: Sun 12:50
Line: Port Adelaide (-28.5)
The Scoop: St. Kilda are a club despite occasional successes, have the most wooden spoons among all clubs. The team that lost the 2010 Grand Final deservedly so lost the replay though Collingwood has fallen with them but at a lower rate. For a time, the Power from Port seemed like they might step out of mediocrity into brilliance for a time, but the quickly reverted to their old way though they still dominate the Showdown. Maybe they'll get back to being above average.
Outlook: Port by 45.


Dog of The Day
Richmond Tigers (0-0) vs. Carlton Blues (0-0)

Time: Thurs 7:20
Line: Richmond (-30.5)
The Scoop: Carlton had the worst NAB Cup outing on the premise that the Brisbane/St. Kilda match was cancelled. The Mick Malthouse coaching thing became more a nightmare than a revival. Richmond are a better than they've shown, their second game against Hawthorn was what we've grown accustomed to seeing lately. This is the season curtain raiser on Thursday night footy so I hope we are mildly surprised by the Blues.
Outlook: Tigerland by 45.

*All times US Eastern

Given the games, the game I am most looking forward to is the Dogs hosting Fremantle despite my anticipation of a spectacle between the Dees and Giants. Decent opening round of fixtures featuring half of the contests between similarly ranked teams from last season's ladder and this pre-season's NAB Cup results. Nothing more to write, let's enjoy some opening round footy!

-Ricky

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